to the breakout below; or cuss and discuss in the comments area.

Short odds

Brazil (D) – The preclusive favorite to win again, thanks to the inexhaustible depth of its roster, including four superstar strikers. Detractors say the team members act like they’re born to win, and that their defense is suspect (though xdfgjkdfkgjifgjopfdjgiofdjgifjgiofjgfiogjf chickrn ins good i hatge soccergrfgfdkgjkfdjgggggggggggggggggggggover. But can the Seleção (“The Selected”) suffer a common fate of teams with so much talent that they — especially their egos — stumble over one another? When you’ve won the whole thing five times, and are the only squad to make it to every single World Cup final, being a bit cocky makes some sense. However, they've never won the tournament in Europe...


England (B) – It boasts the best squad north of the equatorfgfmknfgnfmnfgm,nfgm,nrekjnklgvn reoaynrejtprkofglkdkgmfmvapproach the tournament with injuries; will they even play? The world’s under-ranked 9th team should be able to qualify in group B, even if they field shorthanded. But will Sweden rain on their parade?

Germany (A) – Italy whipped them 4-1 in March; can Costa Rica beat them in Group A? It’s possible, with the Germans nervous in front of a packed Munich stadium; but not likely. How about Poland? Germany has never lost to Poland. And remember: The host nation has won six of the 17 World Cups. Nothing like playing at home where the fans love you and your players know the climate and field conditions better than their opponents.

Argentina (C) – In the killer group C, the Albiceleste (“Sky Whites”) face the Netherlands and Serbia & Montenegro and will have to be consistent to advance to round two, which they failed to do in 2002. But Argentina did finish second to Brazil in the South American qualifiers, and beat them once. One of Argentina’s superstars, Carlos Tevez, knows the Brazilians well, as he anchors Brazilian club champion, Corinthians. And Argentina’s young stars, such as teen phenoms Lionel Messi and Sergio Aguero, are emerging fast. Argentina has won the Cup twice, and finished second twice, but is vulnerable if it doesn’t come out hot in the group stage, because all four teams there are capable of progressing.

Italy (D) – The team slumped to a ranking of 13th in the world, but staked its claim to short odds with a 7-of-10 run-up in qualifying for the tournament. The Azzurri should romp over Ghana in game one, and edge out the USA in their second, but if the team falters in either of those games, it’ll face a tough closer in the Czech Republic, which may threaten its anticipated dominance of the group.

France (G) – Les Bleus (“The Blues”) disappointed in 2002 after winning it all in 1998 at home. In recent months, they couldn’t beat Switzerland in two qualifiers. But while not promising too much, France is capable of much more, and its draw is as kind as it could be. Thierry Henry will have to strike venomously, and the backs will have to be rock hard.

Ahem! Who goes to the World Cup Final? Four nations — Argentina, Brazil, Germany, and Italy — have accounted for 11 of the 12 finalists in the last 12 World Cup finals.


Medium odds:

Netherlands (C) – Has disappointed during the last decade, and will be up against stiff competition. But the punters are backing it, and Ruud van Nistelrooy, a potential winner of the Golden Boot award for top scorer, could deliver the Oranje. They went undefeated in their qualifiers. Will they, or Argentina, become group-round victims? It’s quite possible the Netherlanders will. Coach Marco van Bastan will be mindful of the dangers, and has proved himself to be a highly creditable leader. He has plenty of aces, including Edgar Davids, Andy van der Meyde, Arjen Robben, and Rafael van der Vaart.

Spain (H) – Spain faces stiff opposition in Ukraine, Tunisia, and Saudi Arabia, but is favored to top the group. This is its seventh finals in a row, but just as consistently the team has disappointed. It would be shamed by a loss to either the Saudis or the Tunisians, and both stack up as real threats. Spain plays\ Ukraine first, and if it loses there, the jitters may set in.

Portugal (D) – Should do well, but has in the past disappointed; it boasts Europe’s top qualifying-rounds scorer, Pauleta, as well as Luis Figo and Cristiano Ronaldo, two highly prized stars. Finished second at Euro 2004, and have easier early competition than some higher-ranked squads.

Czech Republic (E) – Is in a tough group, with Italy and USA, but is favored to make it through the group round. With its proud history — eight tournaments, two second places — Karel Bruckner’s team will be eager to prove correct a minority of bookies who back it to win group E.


Long — some ludicrously so — odds:

Mexico (D) – Ranked 7th in the world, El Tricolor could cause real trouble with star striker Jared Borgetti and wealth of top-level experience. Coach Ricardo Lavolpe’s team will have to tame Portugal and beware of Iran. But if it defeats Iran in its first game and Angola in its second, it’ll be well on the way.

Sweden (B) – With a world ranking of 16, Sweden could humble England in group B, and in any case should be able to advance. It won its group in 2002 ahead of England and Argentina, and always poses a threat. Sweden should stomp on Trinidad & Tobago in the starter, and may draw momentum from that. Sweden could be the team that marches to the final four, because its road there is not as daunting as that facing some other teams.

Ukraine (H) –Ukraine hasn’t existed as a country for long, but, led by Andriy Shevchenko, its squad could go to round two in its first appearance if it can tame the dynamic Tunisia or gritty Saudis. They play Spain first, and if they win or draw there, they could be spurred on to make a real run in the group. Shevchenko, a feared striker with AC Milan in the Italian league, was the 2004 European footballer of the year.

Croatia (F) – Should advance with Brazil, ahead of Japan and Australia, or perhaps not (see Australia, below). Their third place in 1988 was no fluke. Tough. Very.

USA (D) – The Stars and Stripes are a good chance to advance if their unlikely rank — 5th in the world — is to be believed over their long odds. In March, Germany beat them 4-1 in a friendly, but the United States has also recently defeated Japan 3-2 and Mexico 2-0. Advanced to the quarter-finals in 2002, and is appearing in its seventh finals tournament, so…? The team must defeat either Italy or the Czech Republic to have a real shot at advancing.

Ivory Coast (C) – With Serbia & Montenegro, whose dour style it contrasts with attack and flair, the Ivory Coast (The Elephants) will battle to break into round two ahead of either Argentina or the Netherlands. A mountainous assignment for a small, seaside state, but it did win the African Zone group three. If they can beat either Holland or Argentina, they could progress. French coach Henri Michel’s squad is bolstered by a pack of graduates from Jean-Marc Guillou’s academy outside Abidjan, and team leader and Chelsea star striker, Didier Drogba.

Serbia and Montenegro (C) – The team lands in the toughest group, where all four contenders are ranked in the world top 50, so it will have to compete at its toughest. The team’s defense has been sterling during lead-up, allowing only one goal in winning European qualifiers group seven. This is one of those squads that could defy the odds and move well ahead.

Switzerland (G) – Drew two qualifiers with France; always a threat, but will struggle against them here, and is doomed if coach Jakob Kuhn cannot find a way to tame the speedy, dogged South Koreans, whom they play last. Whoopin’ Togo will not be enough. Coach Jakob “Kobi” Kuhn’s men have much to prove, as they missed out on the finals in 2002. Scraped in by edging out Turkey in qualifier away goals.

Poland (A) – Can Poland turn up the heat on Germany? The Poles always threaten, but rarely fulfill their promise. If they lose to Ecuador in their first game, they’ll likely go home disappointed, again. Their seasoned, 29-year-old striker, Maciej Zurawski (also of Celtic, in the Scottish league) may lend them the stability they need.

It’d be a miracle (more than 125-1)…

Australia (F) – In its first Cup finals since 1974, the Aussies could advance if they beat Japan or Croatia, or both, as they may well. Then, Australia would not need to hope that Brazil will relax with it in a draw, and it can enjoy being played for a win. The Socceroos squad is stacked with players who hold their own in European leagues, so they are no pushovers; bonus points for being coached by the masterful Guus Hiddink, who steered South Korea so far in 2002.

Paraguay (B) – The Albirroja could beat anyone, but the world’s #33 ranked team, led by Uruguayan coach Anibal “Maño” Ruiz, is considered unlikely to string together enough good performances to advance to repeat their final 16 performances of 2002 and 1998. They will have to beat Sweden to have any shot at advancing beyond the group round this year.

South Korea (G) – At home in 2002, Korea, inspired by its huge fan organization, known as the Red Devils, were giant killers; in Germany they could shock Switzerland (and even France), and should crush Togo to advance to round two, but repeating their semi-final finish of 2002 would stun.

Tunisia (H) – The Carthage Eagles haven’t made it out of the first round in their previous three appearances, but they won the African Nations Cup two years ago, and will not be content to sit back and play safe.

Ghana (D) – The Black Stars have been dour in qualifiers, allowing only four goals in 12 games. They are unlikely to proceed in this, their first, Cup finals tournament, but they may go home content if they beat, say, the Unite States. Hopes are pinned on captain Stephen Appiah and Chelsea’s Michael Essien, the most expensive player in the history of African football.

Ecuador (A) – Ranked 38th in the world, Ecuador beat Paraguay and Uruguay in the fierce South American qualifiers. If they can beat Poland in their group, they are a good shot to progress.

Japan (F) – Japan faces long odds against tough teams, Brazil and Croatia, and even Australia poses a threat. But they have their own proud tradition to protect — this is their third final showing in succession, and they reached the final 16 last time around. The game only grows under the Red Sun, so they could overachieve big-time, fueled by Celtic playmaker Shunsuke Nakamura, for whom coach Zico, the Brazilian ex-star, has big plans.

Togo (G) – Could surprise against France, South Korea, and Switzerland, but most likely will not. Winning even one game would be a feat. They promise attacking football, and a real star in Nigerian-born striker Emmanuel Adebayor.

Costa Rica (A) – Some pick it to surprise Germany in Group A. Yeah, right! They have been in the tournament twice before and once made it to the final 16 (in 1990), but that will mean nothing this time. Alexandre Guimaraes’s Ticos (from Costarricense, the more formal name for Costa Ricans) will probably have to be content with one win against Ecuador in Group A. Gilberto Martinez, Walter Centeno, and veteran striker superstar Paulo Wanchope carry their hopes.

Iran (D) – Team Melli is always disciplined and tough. They and their Croatian coach Branko Ivankovic will have to overcome Portugal or Mexico to move on. They have won only one game at a World Cup, the 1998 grudge game against the USA. They should at least defeat Angola.

Angola (D) – If the Palancas could beat their former colonial overlords, Portugal, in the opening round, they could go home proud from their first Cup appearance. Even if they lose their first two games, to Portugal and Mexico, they’ll go to their final group game with a good shot at Iran, which by then might well be out of contention. One win would be a Cup triumph for Angola.

Saudi Arabia (H) – Coached by former Argentine international Gabriel Calderon, the Saudis could surprise in their group, although Germany trounced them 8-0 in 2002, and advancing seems a long, hard road.

Trinidad and Tobago (B) – Beating England in Group B would startle the globe. They could beat Paraguay, but even that is unlikely. There’ll be plenty of summer left by the time the team heads home, before round two.